The Old Man’s Views
Where do we go from here? Is the future fraught with danger?
I dumped half my BTC position last week, which looking back on it, might have been a bit premature.
But it will not be the first time I banked a little too early.
This week there is a certain amount of optimism coming back into the markets, both in crypto and equities, and this might continue for a few more weeks, which is only a good thing overall.
I doubt whether this is a return to a fully blown bull market, but let's enjoy it while we can.
One of the biggest movers over the past week has been CCD (Concordium) which has rocketed and outperformed most cryptocurrencies recently. Although it only reached the level where I bought back in the summer, this rally will hopefully promote further interest, and I remain confident that it is one for the future.
Whilst I am apprehensive about the equity space, commodities have done reasonably well without getting too many headlines. Aluminium has done very well since the beginning of January, and copper has experienced significant gains since Thanksgiving, which is something of a seasonal play many entertain.
In the area of grains and beans, beans have held well, whilst wheat, in which I have some call options, is yet to break up, but I don't think it will be too long before it does.
In a similar vein, a commodity I am watching is Natural Gas, and as the price deteriorates, I am becoming more and more tempted to get some on board, probably below 2.50. because at that level, the downside risk is minimal.
Of course, this is not trading advice, but it might be worth looking at a few alternative products and researching to see if you find an opportunity outside your everyday sectors.
Outside of the speculative environment, there are a few stories of interest.
One of these is a weakening real estate market. I'm in Portugal, where the amount of real estate is probably higher than the number of people. Property development is a significant sector down here, and with a massive increase in foreign buyers, prices have remained stable, but this cannot last.
High-interest rates and a lack of liquidity in a country with a low-income level must cause a property price collapse. This situation is not unique to Portugal. For a long time, across much of Europe, it's been almost impossible for young buyers to get on to the real estate ladder, with or without the help of Mum and Dad.
I realise that central banks and governments are trying to keep interest rates low. Still, with salaries not keeping up with inflation, many properties find it increasingly difficult to attract buyers.
We see many new properties coming onto the market which are "desirable", but if those who desire cannot afford them, then something has to give.
Sadly, what will not give way is our government's desire for more tax revenue.
Now for a rant!
I'm fed up paying for government mismanagement of our economies. And I am fed up paying for any cause that uses a megaphone to ask for my money, climate activists, the trans community, Uncle Tom Cobbly and all!
I am all for a bit of charity and will give where I can, but I am not too happy about my government stealing from me via taxation and using it for purposes unknown and unjustified.
I do not want to sponsor football teams in China, and I see no reason to send money to countries with their own space programs or who aspire to make themselves a nuclear power.
Moreover, when I look around the world at countries who Western taxpayers are supporting and see modern skyscrapers and grand palaces being built whilst our western cities are descending into shitholes, I have to question what is going on.
On a positive note, I read a story this week which claimed that the crypto industry would remain secure because no government wants to destroy a thriving sector that it can tax. This observation makes much sense, and many people are positioning themselves for such a development. Still, I hope more is being done to keep the government out of our business.
That said, at this year's Davos meeting, crypto bigwigs were well represented. I am not sure how I should perceive this, but I will not be buying coins or tokens from anyone who spoke at the World Economic Forum, no matter how good their product is, "if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas!"
I don’t know about everyone else, but it was mentioned at the WEF, that they want to get more involved with the METAVERSE and use it to educate our youngsters.
If people do not find this a frightening idea, then something is wrong.
The WEF is not the solution, they are the problem!
I realise many are happy to prostitute themselves to the WEF because it they believe it will help them be more successful. But please, stop telling the rest of us that you are doing something to protect the industry, mankind, or the planet.
If these elitist global leaders were as clever as they claim to be, the world would be a better place and products such as BTC and cryptocurrencies would not be needed.
End of rant.
Until next week.