The Old Man’s Views
When a hot-air balloon dominates the news, something is amiss!
However, before I go on to discuss anything else, I will offer my sympathy to the people of Turkey.
I am happy to be hard-nosed about most events but watching pictures of a father sitting by his dead daughter, whose body lies crushed under fallen buildings, reminds us of life's fragility and puts what we do for a living into perspective.
What we do is gamble in a rich man's casino.
I have always argued against such a comment, claiming we make decisions on data and potential economic developments. However, I am finding it increasingly difficult to separate gambling from speculation.
We are trading on hype and our interpretation of caveman drawings because accurate, reliable data is as rare as a hen's teeth.
We live in an age when the actions of increasingly powerful politicians govern everything we do, and politicians lie. Especially the western politicians on which many of us rely.
Writing weekly means I am forced to take a much longer-term view of the economy and the markets than I would take if I wrote daily. And whilst many, including me, have an opinion on what might happen over the coming months or years, we all have to admit that how successful or accurate our analysis proves, much of it is more reliant on the knee-jerk actions of jerk politicians than it is on actual economic data.
Some of us listen to the opinion of whales and influencers. However, much of their arguments are based on their interests rather than what will happen due to economic developments. In many ways, they are like mini-skirted hookers in Las Vegas, blowing on the dice at a craps table, hoping to get a piece of the action, rather than serious people who have a handle on what is going on.
That was evident when Bitcoin reached $60,000, with everyone calling for a move to $100,000 with latecomers in FOMO mode, throwing money down as if it was a sure thing.
We all know what happened next; many mini-skirted girls ran off, and those who remained were stunned when BTC traded below 20,000. We were all told that the next target was 10,000, yet that has yet to come to fruition. Despite this, reports are already circulating that the value of BTC will soon multiply. However, I find it difficult to justify these ambitious targets, as history has taught us to be wary of what we hear.
The problem is that I need to see some tangible justification for any of these outlandish targets. These targets might or might not be reached, but history tells us we cannot trust what we hear.
But hey, that's just my opinion.
Last night, I listened to Joe Biden's State of the Union address. Whilst I may disagree with his whole philosophy, and how he became President... he is in the big house, so we need to take note.
Biden made many comments that were hard to take seriously, but this is a systemic political problem. When the President claims he cut the deficit, when we all know the US debt has increased and is out of control, it is difficult to make sense of it all.
In light of this, with so much of the information we have about our economy questionable, it is crucial to focus on tangible products and ensure our more speculative investments are short-term.
Over the past 18 months, I have advocated for hedging against an economic decline and diversifying our portfolios across numerous sectors and assets. That is still my stance today.
Moreover, commodities are still an excellent place to invest.
With so much uncertainty ahead, especially regarding the geo-political picture, no one, especially those in the West who are eating a daily diet of woke'ism, can have a clue about where we will be or what life will be like in 12 months.
Although there are no guarantees, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
I like BTC, and although I sold some recently, I hope to add if the prices weaken again. I also like metals.
Energy is likely to become the new reserve currency. Whilst the West is attempting to move away from fossil fuels, other parts of the world will continue to rely on them. Metals and foodstuffs will also remain in demand.
These significant changes to the global landscape will only happen after some time. Still, as the picture develops, there will be ample opportunity to make short-term gains.
The recent hot-air balloon incident is a testament to the power of China. Joe Biden was allowed to shoot it down just before his State of the Union address, allowing him to project his strength to his gullable electorate.
It is clear that China is in the driver's seat, and it will be interesting to see how the West responds.
Until Next time.