Posts Tagged ‘risk management’
Macro Research
The Great Rotation
When market themes change, they can be very subtle from one sector to the other. For example, tech to oil short term bonds to long term or from one region to another. A few of these types of changes happened over the last couple of months I think are worth exploring. The last decade…
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Macro Research
Tech Wreck 2.0
It’s quite clear certain parts of the market such as crypto, saas and other duration linked assets in Tech has recently had a fall from grace reminiscent of the .com bust. How deep this goes will depend purely on central bank policy, of which I’ve tried to argue a fall in risk assets is actually…
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Macro Research
What To Expect from The Fed This Week?
This Wednesday the Fed will be announcing its next rate hike. Reading over some of the commentary from fed speakers we can see that 50BPS looks to be on deck. This has also been priced in by the market as we can see below in the Fed watch tool by the CME. We will also…
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Macro Research
After Inversion Comes?
In my first note, I asked the question, will the yield curve invert? With 5s30s and more importantly the 2s10s inverting on 31/03/22, the guessing game is over! The inversion although an important part to start a countdown on a risk off set up. It’s a steepening of the yield curve that comes after an…
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Macro Research
The First Warning Signs
The bond market and in particular certain yield curves are starting to flash warning signs: 5s-30s inverted this week for the first time since 2006. This information is useful and not so useful depending on your time horizon. Let’s answer why it’s useful first, it’s telling you in simple terms that growth will slow, and…
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Macro Research
Don’t Fight the Fed
The phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” is normally attributed to the reaction function of central banks once a crisis is underway. What does it mean? Simply put, once risk assets have been sold off, normally the Fed would step in and buy bond, i.e., quantitative easing plus cut interest rates, this would provide liquidity therefore…
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Macro Research
Will The Fed Hike in March?
With the war between Russia and Ukraine dominating headlines inflation numbers not seen since the early 80s and what could be the first Fed rate hike this month. I want to break down how different Fed speakers are looking at how much to hike by. At a very basic level we can say that…
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Macro Research
Is The Yield Curve About to Invert?
Since Q4 of 2021 to today we have had wild swings within fixed income markets. As G10 central banks have taken notice of rising inflation and bit by bit have had to drop the “transitory inflation” line. This has led to the front end (2 Year yields) rising dramatically and pricing in a more hawkish…
Read MoreChapter 13 – Monitoring Your Investments
Once you have constructed your portfolio you will need to monitor it to make sure it is performing as you had hoped and that you are on track to achieve your investment goals. A financial adviser will, or can, review your investments at your annual meeting. For those that have taken the self-managed route, these…
Read MoreChapter 8 – Understanding Risk
Risk is one of the most important components of all kinds of investing – but risk can also be a complicated issue. There are many measures and definitions of risk: volatility – the up and down movement of the market – is just one measure. Traditional investors only worry about volatility when shares are falling.…
Read MoreChapter 6 – Why is diversification important?
The philosophy behind portfolio diversification is that if one investment performs poorly, you will always have others that will, ideally, not be performing badly at the same time. This allows your varied investments to act as counterbalance to one another. The “asset allocation” or in other words, how you divide your money between shares, cash,…
Read MoreChapter 2 – Risks and its Implications
To earn a better rate of return than you would expect from a savings account, you need to accept more risk. That means getting comfortable with the fact that your investments will/can go down in value some of the time. The long-term direction of the stock market is up, but it doesn’t rise in a…
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