Happy July 4th!

It’s Independence Day, and since last Thursday, there have been more interesting events happening outside of the markets than within. Last week, we witnessed a very intriguing Presidential debate in the USA, and this week…

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Somewhere between the first Margarita and…

the last Pina Colada, the temptation to trade becomes more appealing. Over the coming few months, I will keep my comments short and steer clear of politics. After all, who needs a long ramble when your day is spent listening to your spouse complain about the long airport queues?

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When I was a kid…

When I was a kid the only thing hyped-up was the funny bearded lady in the circus! Now I am older, circuses are closing down because bearded ladies, many with penises, are no longer a curiosity.

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Introducing Fractionalised Investments

In episode 3 of MARKET VIEWS, we’re exploring fractionalised investments. What they are, how they work and why fractionalised investing is allowing ordinary everyday investors to invest their money in professionally managed investment programs, for the first time!

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Macro Research

The Great Rotation

When market themes change, they can be very subtle from one sector to the other. For example, tech to oil short term bonds to long term or from one region to another. A few of these types of changes happened over the last couple of months I think are worth exploring.   The last decade…

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Macro Research

Tech Wreck 2.0

It’s quite clear certain parts of the market such as crypto, saas and other duration linked assets in Tech has recently had a fall from grace reminiscent of the .com bust. How deep this goes will depend purely on central bank policy, of which I’ve tried to argue a fall in risk assets is actually…

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Macro Research

After Inversion Comes?

In my first note, I asked the question, will the yield curve invert? With 5s30s and more importantly the 2s10s inverting on 31/03/22, the guessing game is over! The inversion although an important part to start a countdown on a risk off set up. It’s a steepening of the yield curve that comes after an…

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Macro Research

The First Warning Signs

The bond market and in particular certain yield curves are starting to flash warning signs: 5s-30s inverted this week for the first time since 2006. This information is useful and not so useful depending on your time horizon. Let’s answer why it’s useful first, it’s telling you in simple terms that growth will slow, and…

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Macro Research

Don’t Fight the Fed

The phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” is normally attributed to the reaction function of central banks once a crisis is underway. What does it mean? Simply put, once risk assets have been sold off, normally the Fed would step in and buy bond, i.e., quantitative easing plus cut interest rates, this would provide liquidity therefore…

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Macro Research

Will The Fed Hike in March?

With the war between Russia and Ukraine dominating headlines inflation numbers not seen since the early 80s and what could be the first Fed rate hike this month. I want to break down how different Fed speakers are looking at how much to hike by.   At a very basic level we can say that…

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Macro Research

Is The Yield Curve About to Invert?

Since Q4 of 2021 to today we have had wild swings within fixed income markets. As G10 central banks have taken notice of rising inflation and bit by bit have had to drop the “transitory inflation” line. This has led to the front end (2 Year yields) rising dramatically and pricing in a more hawkish…

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Digital Assets Investing for Everyone

Jillian Godsill, one of the top 100 Blockchain leaders globally, interviews Co-CEOs Peter Kristensen and Adam Hill about the launch of a new service from Swiss investment firm JPFS – trademakers. With the seemingly unstoppable rise of digital assets strengthened by strong institutional interest, central banks developing their own digital currencies, and the growing availability…

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Chapter 9 – Exchange-Traded Funds / Indices

Another “passive” option is exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which may be listed on a stock exchange and traded in the same way as you trade shares. Buyers purchase shares in the fund which trades on an exchange. Like index-tracking funds, ETFs aim to replicate the performance of a chosen index – for example, the Standard &…

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Chapter 8 – Understanding Risk

Risk is one of the most important components of all kinds of investing – but risk can also be a complicated issue. There are many measures and definitions of risk: volatility – the up and down movement of the market – is just one measure. Traditional investors only worry about volatility when shares are falling.…

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Chapter 4 – Why use a financial advisor or an investment guide?

An experienced financial adviser can help you plan your investment portfolio for future profits making sense of the jungle of investment options, risk profiles and markets. A serious financial advisor will tell you all about the risks entailed and will spend more time on that subject than talking about profits. Great financial advisors can match…

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