3D Bull & Bear Monthly Update: June 2024

The last day of the month of June was a great reminder that RISK HAPPENES FAST in the S&P 500. This can be seen in the chart below where the S&P 500 was making new all-time highs (the Volatility Index (VIX) was also making new monthly lows), and then the S&P 500 declined -1.3% in six hours.

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Benjamin Franklin and the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is at its highest level in history and according to the Warren Buffet Indicator, it’s as overvalued as it was just months before a bear market and -27% decline. There are also signs around the globe that are warning the S&P 500 is…

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3D Bull & Bear Monthly Update: May 2024

The last two months in the S&P 500 have been textbook examples and reminders that RISK HAPPENS FAST (in both directions). After dropping -4% in April and having the five worst days of the year last month, the S&P 500 rebounded to new all-time highs and finished the month of May up nearly 5%…

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3D Bull & Bear Monthly Update – February 2024

The S&P 500 continued its historic run in February and finished the month at an all-time monthly closing high. February 2024 also marks the one year anniversary of 3D Capital combining 16 years of success into one program called 3D Bull/Bear…

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Macro Research

The Great Rotation

When market themes change, they can be very subtle from one sector to the other. For example, tech to oil short term bonds to long term or from one region to another. A few of these types of changes happened over the last couple of months I think are worth exploring.   The last decade…

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Macro Research

Tech Wreck 2.0

It’s quite clear certain parts of the market such as crypto, saas and other duration linked assets in Tech has recently had a fall from grace reminiscent of the .com bust. How deep this goes will depend purely on central bank policy, of which I’ve tried to argue a fall in risk assets is actually…

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Macro Research

After Inversion Comes?

In my first note, I asked the question, will the yield curve invert? With 5s30s and more importantly the 2s10s inverting on 31/03/22, the guessing game is over! The inversion although an important part to start a countdown on a risk off set up. It’s a steepening of the yield curve that comes after an…

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Macro Research

The First Warning Signs

The bond market and in particular certain yield curves are starting to flash warning signs: 5s-30s inverted this week for the first time since 2006. This information is useful and not so useful depending on your time horizon. Let’s answer why it’s useful first, it’s telling you in simple terms that growth will slow, and…

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