Posts Tagged ‘investing’
Cromwell FX Market View
Return of The Dollar
Last week major markets were rangebound till later in the week. Stagflation fears rose as the usually cautious ECB pre committed to rate rises in July and September and US CPI hit a 40-year high which triggered a sell off across all risk assets, pushing yields higher and the US Dollar stronger. The Euro struggled…
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Cromwell FX Market View
US Dollar Rebounds. Markets Look For Direction
Last week the US dollar reversed the decline seen over the last couple of weeks. Modest gains were made as rising yields and stronger than expected NFP number saw elevated volatility in risk assets The Euro had a mixed week as more ECB comments became hawkish. With Eurozone inflation running in excess of 8%…
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Cromwell FX Market View
US Dollar To Continue Correction
Last week we saw the US Dollar fall once again as short covering fuelled a bounce in risk assets. The Fed is beginning to give a clearer indication as to where it think the Fed funds will be with the risk being that market expectations are disappointed. The Pound which although gained ground vs…
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Macro Research
The Great Rotation
When market themes change, they can be very subtle from one sector to the other. For example, tech to oil short term bonds to long term or from one region to another. A few of these types of changes happened over the last couple of months I think are worth exploring. The last decade…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Bear Market… Yes or No?
Last week risk off flows continued a pace as global inflation numbers remained high. The US Dollar finally lost some ground to other currencies as the world waits to see if we are turning into a bear market. The US Dollar had its first losing week in sometime. US data is still showing some…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Dollar Remain Strong; Euro Looks Vulnerable
Last week saw huge volatility in most markets. Crypto was probably the most wild as some lost their entire value. In the short term we saw some stabilisation towards the end of the week. Yen ended the best performer vs the USD helped by risk aversion and a retracement in treasury yields. The US Dollar…
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Macro Research
Tech Wreck 2.0
It’s quite clear certain parts of the market such as crypto, saas and other duration linked assets in Tech has recently had a fall from grace reminiscent of the .com bust. How deep this goes will depend purely on central bank policy, of which I’ve tried to argue a fall in risk assets is actually…
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Cromwell FX Market View
The Fed Continues to Rule
The week that was so anticipated finally arrived. The Fed raised interest rates by 50bps ruling out the possibility of 75bps. However by the end of the week, fed fund futures are still pricing in 82.9% chance of a 75bps hike in at the June 15 FOMC meeting, to 1.50-75% Most pairs found some level…
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Macro Research
What To Expect from The Fed This Week?
This Wednesday the Fed will be announcing its next rate hike. Reading over some of the commentary from fed speakers we can see that 50BPS looks to be on deck. This has also been priced in by the market as we can see below in the Fed watch tool by the CME. We will also…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Dollar Continues Its Dominance; Risk Assets Fall
The US Dollar ended the week the strongest, having the best week since 2015 and with Dollar index hitting a two-decade high. The index moved to 103.92 its highest since 2002 as expectations of aggressive rate hike by the Fed in June. The Euro although performed better earlier in the week as Macron won a…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Big Gains for the US Dollar
The US Dollar was the overall winner last week making impressive gains across the board. A further firming of yields and speculation of further Fed tightening propelled the USD. The market is now expecting a 50bps rate hike in May and could end the year between 2.5% and 3.5% depending on incoming data and developments…
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Cromwell FX Market View
US Dollar Grinds Higher
Last weeks rising yields continued. This led to a week of further downward pressure in bonds and interest rate rises. The Box and RBNZ both moved 50bps higher which caused risk assets to move lower. The shortened week for the 4 day easter holiday saw the US Dollar grind higher. The flight from risk…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Sleepy Start, Explosive End
The week started as the following had ended. Markets were relatively quiet. The war in Ukraine had continued to ebb away from headlines and the markets were able to begin to focus on other factors. The US Dollar ended the week the strongest despite the mixed start. The markets waited until the Fed minutes…
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Macro Research
After Inversion Comes?
In my first note, I asked the question, will the yield curve invert? With 5s30s and more importantly the 2s10s inverting on 31/03/22, the guessing game is over! The inversion although an important part to start a countdown on a risk off set up. It’s a steepening of the yield curve that comes after an…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Quieter Week – But Eye of The Storm?
The week was quieter on many fronts. The continued war in Ukraine has now seems to have completely stalled for the Russians. The announcement of a more focused approach on the Donbas region seemed to indicate that a move for total control over the control had failed. Continued talks did not prove to garner any…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Rising Yields a Cause for Concern
The war in Ukraine seemed to move from the spotlight as any developments continued to stall the main themes for the week was the continuing rising yields. The Yen was the biggest loser as global yields surged except the JGB. The BoJ has clearly put a cap on 10-year yields and the resulting widening…
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Macro Research
The First Warning Signs
The bond market and in particular certain yield curves are starting to flash warning signs: 5s-30s inverted this week for the first time since 2006. This information is useful and not so useful depending on your time horizon. Let’s answer why it’s useful first, it’s telling you in simple terms that growth will slow, and…
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Cromwell FX Market View
War Stalls and Fed Hikes
The week saw the current war in Ukraine stall. With this we saw the Euro gain slight momentum GBP gained as the BoE again raised rates by 25bps. However this was not enough for the currency to gain any real upside momentum. The market had eyed a potential 50bps rise and with less than…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Markets Remain Stable Ahead of Fed
The week saw some level of stabilisation after the previous 2 weeks of roller coaster markets. Ukraine continued to dominate the headlines but with no further escalation the markets sought to remain calmer than previous weeks. The USD which had seen safe haven status over the last 2 weeks gave up some ground to…
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Macro Research
Don’t Fight the Fed
The phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” is normally attributed to the reaction function of central banks once a crisis is underway. What does it mean? Simply put, once risk assets have been sold off, normally the Fed would step in and buy bond, i.e., quantitative easing plus cut interest rates, this would provide liquidity therefore…
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