Cromwell FX Market View

The FED to be more data driven

Last week saw the FED rise interest rates by the expected 75bps. The big surprise was the comments post meeting. The markets had priced in further interest rates through to end of 2022. The comments coming out where that the Fed will be more data driven potentially signalling a slow in rate rises. Euro failed…

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Cromwell FX Market View

ECB Surprise

Last week saw the US Dollar finally move lower after several strong weeks. With inflation remaining high and mixed economic data markets saw no clear path for accelerated tightening by the Fed in the upcoming meeting.   Euro moved higher and away from parity as the ECB surprised the market with a 50bps rate hike.…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Euro Reaches Parity Briefly

Last week saw the US Dollar squeeze higher. With the Euro briefly breaching parity talk turned to the Fed and a possible 100bps rate rise this month. Investors are still expecting just a 75bps this month which helped later in the week as the Euro rebounded and could lead to short covering. Euro eventually gave…

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The Old Man’s Views

As an adviser during these dangerous times, how are you dealing with questions and complaints?

As I’ve never been a salesman, my direct involvement with non-professional investors has been minimal, However, that does not mean I have not received complaints when my advice goes wrong, and investors lose money. After spending hours on the phone and listening to clients’ complaints, salespeople can become much angrier than their investors, and they…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Relief Rally Falters; US Dollar Returns

Last week saw the relief rally end as sell the rise came back into play. The US Dollar once again re asserted itself on the market pushing against important resistance levels. The Fed still remains much further ahead in its policy and this policy divergence once again brought strength to the US Dollar. Despite its…

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The Old Man’s Views

Is the End of the World Nigh?

6-months later, and YouTube is suddenly awash with videos by esteemed oracles, claiming, “Most people do not know what’s coming”. Hopefully, the readers of my shit have been preparing for months!   Today’s social media, like the mainstream media, is about as valuable to traders as bicycles are to a fish.   SP500 has had…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Relief Rally After Central Banks Move

Last week the relief rally people had been expecting finally came. As markets looked to digest the moves of the central banks and upcoming 2022 first half ending we saw the US Dollar give back a little. This was accompanied by yields falling and risk assets rising as the fall in commodity and energy prices…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Central Banks Make Their Move

Last week saw the central banks look to tighten further as inflationary pressures continue to loom. The Fed was particularly hawkish raising by 75bps but the week also had the SNB delivering a surprise 50bps while the BoE’s 25bps had an underlying hawkish note with 3 members looking to raise by more. The Euro had…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Return of The Dollar

Last week major markets were rangebound till later in the week. Stagflation fears rose as the usually cautious ECB pre committed to rate rises in July and September and US CPI hit a 40-year high which triggered a sell off across all risk assets, pushing yields higher and the US Dollar stronger. The Euro struggled…

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