Posts Tagged ‘FX’
The Old Man’s Views
There is more action on the beaches than in the markets!
Another week has passed, and it seems more traders are on the beach than in their offices. There are lots of stories on LinkedIn, but most of them are just promotional. I am spending much of my time arranging my Airbnbs and ensuring my guests have a decent holiday visiting Portugal. Sadly, the same cannot…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Bank of England Dovish Hike Surprises
Last week saw the Bank of England raise rates by 0.5% to 1.75%. This is the biggest rise in 27 years and the highest rates have been since 2008. Strong payrolls later in the week gave the US Dollar a lift after last weeks announcement that the Fed will be looking more at the data…
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The Old Man’s Views
Congratulations to the England Women’s football team!
Years of dedication and effort paid off! A team of people, who suffered to become the best at what they do, have finally achieved the success they have earned. As an Englishman, I can’t remember when I was so proud of English footballers, or at least it’s been a long time (I was nine years…
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Cromwell FX Market View
The FED to be more data driven
Last week saw the FED rise interest rates by the expected 75bps. The big surprise was the comments post meeting. The markets had priced in further interest rates through to end of 2022. The comments coming out where that the Fed will be more data driven potentially signalling a slow in rate rises. Euro failed…
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The Old Man’s Views
Thank God for the Sunshine. But not the drought.
Once again, it’s been a week with very little substance to report. Joe Biden is still the worst President in American history. Last week he told us he had cancer, 24 hours later, they told us he had Covid. This week I expect they will say to us he has caught Monkey Pox! (which he…
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Cromwell FX Market View
ECB Surprise
Last week saw the US Dollar finally move lower after several strong weeks. With inflation remaining high and mixed economic data markets saw no clear path for accelerated tightening by the Fed in the upcoming meeting. Euro moved higher and away from parity as the ECB surprised the market with a 50bps rate hike.…
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The Old Man’s Views
When the sun is shining, all is right with the world
Summer “silly season” is upon us, and if you are not now taking a well-earned break, you should do it. Downside momentum is still with us, but it has dramatically decelerated to a point where some people are now looking to go long for a quick rally. I hope the rally takes place because it…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Euro Reaches Parity Briefly
Last week saw the US Dollar squeeze higher. With the Euro briefly breaching parity talk turned to the Fed and a possible 100bps rate rise this month. Investors are still expecting just a 75bps this month which helped later in the week as the Euro rebounded and could lead to short covering. Euro eventually gave…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Euro Suffers as Russia Turns The Taps… Down
Last week the US Dollar was strong, helped by improved economic data and a surplice NFP number. The strength persisted all week as the DXY moved 1.7% higher to close at 106.89. Euro was the worst performer as the talk of energy rationing took its toll on the single currency and a move to parity…
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The Old Man’s Views
As an adviser during these dangerous times, how are you dealing with questions and complaints?
As I’ve never been a salesman, my direct involvement with non-professional investors has been minimal, However, that does not mean I have not received complaints when my advice goes wrong, and investors lose money. After spending hours on the phone and listening to clients’ complaints, salespeople can become much angrier than their investors, and they…
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The Old Man’s Views
It’s holiday time, so no more doom and gloom?
The sun is shining, the holidaymakers are happy, and it’s time to enjoy life. We are still far from seeing a return to economic growth, but by now, most people have committed to what they will do investment-wise, so what’s the point of remaining grumpy? We’ve all made our bets. Now it’s time to see…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Relief Rally Falters; US Dollar Returns
Last week saw the relief rally end as sell the rise came back into play. The US Dollar once again re asserted itself on the market pushing against important resistance levels. The Fed still remains much further ahead in its policy and this policy divergence once again brought strength to the US Dollar. Despite its…
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The Old Man’s Views
Is the End of the World Nigh?
6-months later, and YouTube is suddenly awash with videos by esteemed oracles, claiming, “Most people do not know what’s coming”. Hopefully, the readers of my shit have been preparing for months! Today’s social media, like the mainstream media, is about as valuable to traders as bicycles are to a fish. SP500 has had…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Relief Rally After Central Banks Move
Last week the relief rally people had been expecting finally came. As markets looked to digest the moves of the central banks and upcoming 2022 first half ending we saw the US Dollar give back a little. This was accompanied by yields falling and risk assets rising as the fall in commodity and energy prices…
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The Old Man’s Views
To err is human, but you need a computer or a politician to mess up completely
I am not one for delving deep into every technical product’s nitty-gritty. But it appears that there are a few programming errors across the crypto blockchain industry, which is worrisome. I am no expert on such matters, and it would be wrong for me to criticize or point fingers, but there is no question…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Central Banks Make Their Move
Last week saw the central banks look to tighten further as inflationary pressures continue to loom. The Fed was particularly hawkish raising by 75bps but the week also had the SNB delivering a surprise 50bps while the BoE’s 25bps had an underlying hawkish note with 3 members looking to raise by more. The Euro had…
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Cromwell FX Market View
Return of The Dollar
Last week major markets were rangebound till later in the week. Stagflation fears rose as the usually cautious ECB pre committed to rate rises in July and September and US CPI hit a 40-year high which triggered a sell off across all risk assets, pushing yields higher and the US Dollar stronger. The Euro struggled…
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The Old Man’s Views
Nowhere to run to baby, nowhere to hide!
That’s a song by Martha Reeves and the Vandellas from 1965. It is also the current situation for the whole of humanity. Having preached about the coming of the present economic situation for over 6-months, I am not going to carry on preaching. Let me discuss where I am. I have fared much better…
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The Old Man’s Views
Are We in an Investor’s Market or a Speculator’s Market?
Do you know enough about market movements to keep your money invested? With a very impressive start to the week, the gung-ho brigade started to flock back to social media and forecast massive gains. Yet 24-hours later, all we could hear was, WTF! Emotion is a beautiful thing! Back in the real world,…
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Cromwell FX Market View
US Dollar Rebounds. Markets Look For Direction
Last week the US dollar reversed the decline seen over the last couple of weeks. Modest gains were made as rising yields and stronger than expected NFP number saw elevated volatility in risk assets The Euro had a mixed week as more ECB comments became hawkish. With Eurozone inflation running in excess of 8%…
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