Making money is easy, it’s the storing of wealth that is difficult
As mentioned in my previous reports, I finally covered my short position on BTC at the 27000 level, giving me a nice 3000 profit. There might be more on the downside, but it is so tricky to fathom what will happen with cryptocurrencies over the coming months that I decided to get out and await further developments.
I remain short EURUSD at 1.10 and have lowered my stop to just below that level.
I also have a small short position in SP500 around the current levels, based on the idea of “sell in May and go away”, with a target of around 3700. Uncomfortably, I have a sizeable stop on this position because there might be a short-term spike before it dips, but I will lower my stop as soon as prudently possible.
This week, I started my report on the markets, as little is happening that goes against the recent idea of remaining short into the summer.
I completely understand those who are grasping any snippets of news that could be positive for our economies. Still, other than a few knee-jerk rallies in the financial markets, I don’t see much worth buying, at least not for a long-term investment.
On the other hand, raw materials will provide us with a few decent opportunities to profit from going long. Overall, even at the current depressed values, I remain bullish on commodities because even if the economy slows further, Chinese machines will need to be fed, as will the ever-increasing global population.
The big gamble right now is what China will do, with many translating stories of an improvement in China as a sign of growth in Western markets.
While this may prove true, if you think the value of something will go up, then buy that: not something that might go up with it.
There is no question that the West is in a mess and that our dwindling resources continue to get wasted on political programs rather than economic growth. There is also no question that China and the other BRICS, indeed the whole developing world, are massively outperforming our increasingly fascist economies.
When I say fascist, I am not talking about Jackboots and the little guy with the stupid moustache.
What I am talking about is the epidemic of widespread crony capitalism, which is growing like cancer in much of the Western world, because what is fascism if it is not a few companies becoming incredibly rich because the government gives them contracts, financial support, and legislates to make it difficult for others to compete.
Come to think about it, when it comes to economic matters, there is little difference between crony-capitalist fascism and what happens in communist-run countries.
Of course, seeing the problem and doing something about it is different.
As long as the big and powerful manipulate how we think, things will not change.
We like superstars and big players, and in our world of wannabe influencers, most non-thinkers are happy to quote the views of celebrities, no matter how stupid the quotes and comments are.
However, forget my cynicism, what is essential today is recognising how doing business is changing, and as we are all in it for the money, we need to go with the flow.
I am a free market devotee, win or lose; I take responsibility for my decisions, and I would never rely on some plonker in government or a central bank to influence or make my decisions for me. Indeed, I often trade against government agendas and statistics.
I have no time for ESG or DEI because these things are often unprofitable.
Moreover, the rationale and science behind everything Western governments promote need questioning.
If carbon continues to be taken out of the atmosphere, being long on food might give me a return because if you do not feed your food, it will surely die!
I am too old to worry about a politically correct, AI-written opinion, and I have been around for too many years to swallow things that upset my palette, but I will take advantage of them when it suits me.
If the cryptocurrency sector comes under more pressure, I want to be short of them. I will sell equity markets if the economy is going into free fall. If Europe is on the road to ruin, I will sell the Euro. Because that is what speculators do, and while I am not too old to learn and adapt, I am too old to change who I am!
I would love to see someone innovative come up with a solution to our current economic problems, but that will take time, especially now that we have more faith in artificial intelligence than in common sense!
Making money in our markets is no easier or more difficult than it was 40 years ago; the difficult thing today is finding somewhere to store our wealth safely.
So, if anyone has an innovative, bullet-proof place to store wealth outside of gold, let me know. But please, don’t tell me about BTC, as it seems the “innovative” people in that sector are out to kill it!
Until next time.
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