The Old Man’s Views
I’ve just spent a week on my back…
Getting old is no fun, but keeping up with the latest market developments sure keeps you busy.
In the past 18 months, the crypto and hi-tech community has moved their focus from NFTs, to the Metaverse, and now into AI.
Smart money is still focused on the blockchain and smart contracts. Yet, in a world where almost every country is bankrupt, it amazes me that so many people can seemingly raise significant amounts of cash for products about which most of the public is still largely ignorant and apathetic.
I don't pretend to understand most of the innovative products coming onto the market. However, with such massive developments occurring so quickly, we seem to be changing our investment focus as often as we change our underwear.
Keeping up with the technological and financial developments of the past year and a half has been no easy task, but it has become increasingly important to remain abreast of modern trends and investments, because we all need as many strings to our bows as we can find.
I am a traditional trader, which means I look at the financial markets to enhance the value of my overall portfolio or provide protection during an economic decline.
When I observe the output of many of today's young players, there is a massive focus on finding a rocket to ride just before it takes off.
This "shit or bust" attitude towards investing is very alien to me, but it sure does make for exciting times.
I don't blame anyone for having a punt on a new product. However, let's remember: the only person guaranteed to go home from the races with a bag full of cash is the bookmaker.
That said, with the long-term outlook so uncertain, why not have a gamble? At least it's a bit of fun.
Sure, old guys like me are more comfortable buying gold, bonds, or equities, but I must admit, what we do with our dough is vastly less fun than some of the newer products. That’s why they are attracting so much money.
I am concerned that the price of “having fun” might prove too expensive in the long run. And worry that when the global recession does come, and it will, many may wish they had invested in something more tangible and valuable than an NFT (digital collectable) or a chunk of the Mark Zuckerberg Metaverse.
There are some very bright young people out there and I learn from them, but too many others believe the only way to protect themselves from a global decline is buying crypto and then to wait for it to rocket. That doesn’t, in my opinion. bode well for the future of the investment industry, as a lot of people could get hurt…again!
In my reports, mostly written tongue-in-cheek, I pose questions for younger people to consider, more than to promote an idea or a vehicle to use for investments.
I feel there is a real need for this, as few people today are as lucky as I've been and are not given time to learn about the business.
Moreover, whilst many may champion the demise of brokers and broker services, the education I received from the numerous brokers I dealt with - especially in my formative years - has proven invaluable and allowed me to stay active in the business for a long time, which is ultimate the goal of any speculator.
That said, we never have, or at least during my almost 50 years, seen a situation equal to today's.
I have written and read stuff about past boom-and-bust scenarios, and I’ve been through numerous inflation, stagflation and recession periods. But what worries me today is that I have never seen a geopolitical change like we are going through.
This is the first time I have seen this amount of national and private debt in the West.
We have the stupid war in Ukraine, imbeciles running our countries, and have to suffer the shameful bias and dishonesty of our national media. So as analysts, who knows where we will be over the coming months, let alone the coming years.
As someone touching retirement age, I have tried to balance my small portfolio to weather various future scenarios and still have some fun money to play in the markets.
As mentioned in my previous reports, I have put some money into the fractionalised investment programs offered by SGT and trademakers, because the ‘young guys’ there are much more nimble than an old guy who now spends more days in traction than in front of a screen.
I will leave you with one comment.
As analysts, at best, we offer guesstimates, and the accuracy of these guesstimates decreases the further forward we look. Moreover, because positivity sells, we are all going to be positive about the future.
The best advice I can offer is to know when to put risk on, and when to take risk off the table.
Holding cash is risky, as over the coming years much can change, especially with the speed that CBDC is developing. Crypto might be a solution, but as the industry is coming under so much scrutiny, there are no guarantees. So please do not put all your eggs in one basket and load it onto one rocket that might crash and burn.
Until next time…
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