The Old Man’s Views
HO-HO-HO! And all that stuff!
I was going to write a report on my views for next year but playing pin-the-tail-on-the-Donkey, when the outlook is less than positive is hardly a great way to end the year.
So let us enjoy this little Christmas Rally and get prepared to spend this season making our families happy and hopefully warmer.
Energy, food and shelter will be the areas to focus on next year, so we must enjoy whilst we can and prepare for what's coming down the pipeline.
And what is coming down the pipeline? Well, for one thing, it's not going to be oil.
At a time when we are backing away from Russian oil, President Xi has been to Saudi and signed 24 trade deals.
When Biden visited Saudi Arabia, he was given the cold shoulder and walked away with nothing. When Xi visited, not only did the Saudis roll out the red carpet, he walked away with everything he wanted.
And if slapping Joe Biden in the face wasn't enough, the BRIC nations are expanding, with Saudi, Egypt and Turkey about to join. The BRICs have their bank, and the currencies they will use will be backed by Gold and a host of other commodities, tangible products supporting a currency to be used by almost 50% of the global population.
When we compare this to other Western currencies, what supports them? Nothing but debt.
I know what I'd prefer to use. (I wrote about it in my report early this year) its BRIC currencies.
Many will want to respond with the virtues of BTC and stable coins. But as it is at the moment, the crypto industry does not look too virtuous to most people.
I'm holding BTC and a few worthless toy tokens for fun, but I am keeping them more in hope than belief. Hoping that when the shit hits the fan, BTC will still allow me to trade or barter if needs be.
When it comes to stable coins, we know they are not exactly what it says on the tin. Moreover, these coins, such as USDC, will eventually morph into the CBDC, which is a product we must all fear.
People can argue this point, but these will probably be the same people who, only last month, were putting SBF up on a pedestal.
On SBF, what can we say?
After watching the new CEO of FTX questioned by Congress, we could say much more than the Democrats.
But then again, because they are fully aware that some of the stolen money was used to put Biden in the White House, you can forgive them for being quiet.
When I learned that it was the useless Democrat DOJ who was directly responsible for remaining in the Bahamas and that Bahamians had been allowed to take their money out of FTX, the whole affair smelled fishy. And I don't think that is from the shark which SBF is eating in his prison cell.
This fiasco at FTX is the mother of all crimes, and it will involve the mother of all cover-ups.
FTX is such a big problem that I doubt whether any exchange will be safe from the inevitable fall-out.
I've had to go through the stress of putting my few coins into a cold wallet, which for this old dinosaur, was a pain in the ass. But, as it stands right now, you got to be crazy not to have your stuff locked away in your back pocket or wherever you keep yours.
My views on commodities have not changed over recent months, so I will not discuss them again. But I will make one observation.
If you want to buy Gold, then buy it, preferably physical. But if you want to trade using leverage, ensure you are confident with your counterparty. If there is one thing everyone has learned in the past month, it must be a realization that counter-party risk is real.
I recommend buying other commodities on the futures markets, as it is always the safest option, but you will have to familiarize yourself with how these different markets work.
I mentioned using the options market last week, and this time of year is typically an excellent time to pick a few out-of-the-money call options. But make sure you read up and understand how they work.
You can always email me if you need to learn about this stuff and are interested. firstname.lastname@example.org
The good news.
Nuclear fusion is here. So, our prayers are answered.
I don't know how long it will take before we see this scientific breakthrough available in the real world, and I doubt whether it will affect the climate. But at least it is here.
So that being the case, it's time we removed all these unnecessary taxes on our energy.
We have to use this opportunity and ease up on household and business energy costs, rapidly reduce inflation, and get our economies moving again.
As it stands, I see weak equity markets next year, and we face the probability that some major companies might collapse under the burden of increased energy costs.
Lowering energy costs may not be the silver bullet for our problems, but now we have nuclear fusion as an option, at least we can go down fighting.
And finally, talking of fighting. Let’s go Elon!
That's it from me.
I wish you and your families a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year.
Until Next time