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Happy July 4th!

It's Independence Day, and since last Thursday, there have been more interesting events happening outside of the markets than within.

Last week, we witnessed a very intriguing Presidential debate in the USA, and this week brought a Supreme Court ruling stating that Trump cannot be held guilty for decisions made during his presidency. We also saw the French elections, where a patriotic populist party won, reflecting the sentiments of many Europeans who are tired of a globalist agenda. This party will probably not win in France, but the support it has had should be an eye-opener for the people in Brussels.

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Also today, British voters will elect a new socialist government, which ironically, I suspect may not fulfill the actual desires of the electorate. But as they say in the north of England, “there is nowt so queer as folk”!

 

Amidst these events, there's also a European soccer tournament capturing more interest than the financial markets or the financial experts on Bloomberg TV.

 

If it weren’t for the sunburn I'm dealing with, I’d pat myself on the back for seemingly calling the short-term high on NVIDIA, which is now trading 10% lower. (Though, in truth, that call was more luck than skill).

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BTC is hovering around the 60,000 level in rather lackluster conditions. This market needs a bit of a push to move higher from here. While that’s not impossible, most crypto enthusiasts prefer lounging on the beach, so the timing might not be right for a market boost just yet.

With so many political events occurring, it's no surprise that many financial markets are stagnating. This was expected, but it makes offering a precise prediction on what to expect a bit challenging.

 

We might see a few wild market moves in the coming weeks, but whether any of them will have long-term significance remains uncertain. Moreover, given that I write just once a week, it wouldn't be right for me to speculate on future happenings, especially as my own portfolio is fairly square.

 

Commodities continue to weaken, and I am grateful for closing out my long positions a few weeks ago. As I mentioned last week, now that prices have eased, I am tempted to re-enter certain commodities, but I am still holding back, waiting for clearer buy signals from the charts.

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On this 4th of July, I'm reminded of Thomas Paine's pamphlet, “Common Sense,” written in early 1776, which fueled the revolutionary spirit. Common sense tells me that waiting a bit longer might reveal clearer investment opportunities.

Equity markets have held up better than I anticipated. The declining inflation is obviously a contributing factor, but I remain cautious about changing my view. Much of the market's strength comes from heavy investments in too few companies.

While these massive global corporations offer good long-term potential, I believe that without widespread growth across all sectors, we might be witnessing the formation of a potential bubble. Time will tell.

 

Most of you are much better stock pickers than I am, and conducting your own research, so don’t let me deter you from jumping in. That said, I may have missed this recent rally, but jumping in at this late stage isn’t feasible for me, so I’ll stay on the sidelines, especially as it is a very short week.

 

Happy Independence Day!

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