Digital Asset Insights
Digital Asset Insights #73
What is the fate of cryptocurrencies as the bearish trend continues towards its lowest in history? How do you safely navigate the fragile nature of digital assets? This weekly report helps you with the right information to minimize the risk and maximize your gains in crypto investments.
Bitcoin price showed incredible resilience after its massive crash in the second week of June. Since then, BTC produced considerable gains over the past week, and the start of a new week brings the promise of even higher returns. On Monday, June 27, Bitcoin price bounced off the $19,252 support level and recovered 21% to its recently formed swing low at $17,605.
However, Bitcoin lost 1.9% in 24 hours, trading near $20.8K on Tuesday morning. Bitcoin was down on Monday, echoing the behavior of the US stock indices. The BTC USD remained under its simple 200-week moving average. It needed a meaningful fundamental driver, which was not easy to find and overcome. Bitcoin is experiencing the worst bearish trend in its history. Bitcoin price traded at $20,727. Bitcoin price was unable to conquer bullish grounds on the Relative Strength Index and lacked volume to justify a valid uptrend.
On Wednesday, June 29. Bitcoin price dropped 5.5% since retesting the weekly open at $21,025. The lack of buying pressure means bears have taken control. As a result, BTC sliced through Monday’s low at $20,482 and headed toward the previous Monday’s low at $19,612, which is also the liquidity objective from a market maker’s perspective.
On Thursday, June 30, Bitcoin (BTC) price neared the end point of its descent as price action was inches away from hitting a historic pivotal level that got marked up at $19,036.
At the end of the month, Bitcoin price traded at $19,350. The bears showed up towards the final days of June with enough strength to produce a monthly close below the psychological $20,000 level at $19,942. The monthly close is now the second-largest bearish candlestick since May 2021. This unfortunate piece of evidence bears the necessity to consider lower targets for the Bitcoin price in the coming months. $18,750 and $17,300 will be key levels to keep an eye on.
Invalidation of the bearish downtrend relies upon a breach above $23,500. If the bulls can hurdle the mid $23,000 barrier, they may be able to reconquer the trend and rally toward $31,000, resulting in a 60% increase from the current Bitcoin price.
Ethereum price opened the week at $1,184, finding support above the 8-day SMA. The 21-day SMA resided above the current market price at $1,300, which justified the choppy price movement witnessed at the end of June.
On Wednesday, June 29, Ethereum price had rallied 46% between June 19 and June 26 and set a swing high at $1,284. This impressive recovery rally, however, also created a double top, signaling a potential double top reversal formation. Since then, ETH has dropped 13% and is likely to continue its downtrend as long as BTC continues to do the same. Going forward, investors can expect Ethereum price to reach the $993 support level. In some cases, the smart contract token might sweep the June 19 swing low at $878, which could also signal a bottom formation. However, a breakdown or a daily candlestick close below this level will indicate that more lows are on the horizon.
ETH price will first seek to complete its cycle and possibly seek refuge at the monthly S2 support, which already provided support on June 18 and 19. As mentioned in the Bitcoin piece, this time, investors may not be there to support that level. That means that ETH price action could overshoot the S2 and hit $830 to the downside, triggering a 20% drop.
At the opening of the month, Ethereum price traded at $1,047. A Fibonacci retracement tool surrounding June's low and high ($881 - $1,233) suggests that the ETH price has lost 50% of profits accrued. If the bulls cannot produce a rally from the current price levels, the bears will reconquer the trend aiming for the June 18 swing low at $890 and potentially $700 to shake knife catchers out of the market. It is worth noting that a death cross is underway as the 21-day moving average is plummeting into the notorious 200-week moving average. The collision of these key moving averages confounds the market’s sentiment as a whole as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index revisits historical levels.
Invalidation of the bearish trend remained a breach above $1,284. If the bulls can take out this level, they may be able to rally as high as $2,100, resulting in a 100% increase from the current Ethereum price.
At the start of the previous week, Ripple price recovered well before tagging the inclined support trend line, extending from April 2017. This premature bounce suggests that sellers were facing exhaustion and buyers were taking over.
Unlike other cryptocurrencies, Ripple price needed to overcome the $0.418 weekly resistance barrier before encountering the 200-week SMA at $0.491. It was rejected from the $0.38 barrier on Monday, June 27. Over the weekend, the bulls consolidated in the resistance zone allowing traders to join the party early with optimism after rallying 35% since the June 18 low at $0.28. Unfortunately, the exhaustion was too much to handle as the bears retaliated and could potentially force a bearish death cross of the 8- and 21-day simple moving averages.
Ripple price traded at $0.34 on Tuesday. Invalidation of the bearish trend remained above $0.4170. If the bulls can breach through, a rally towards $0.51 will likely occur in the short term, resulting in a 48% increase from the current Ripple price.
On Tuesday, Ripple price seemed to be frontrunning the sell-off as it dropped 15% from its June 24 swing high at $0.386. This downswing suggested that Ethereum and Ripple are highly suggestible and were likely to follow in Bitcoin’s footsteps. Judging from that, investors can expect Ripple price to continue this trend until it reaches the $0.319 support level. A breakdown of this barrier might see XRP price retest $0.292. This is the last line of defense for the remittance token, so a flip of this foothold into a hurdle could see Ripple crash 15% to $0.250
At the end of the month of June, Ripple (XRP) price neared a turning point level that witnessed a reversal on June 18 and would be expected to trigger a bounce back to $0.3710 in a swing trade setup. XRP price doesn’t have a good forecast for the summer as price action could be set to implode if $0.3043 does not hold. The fail-safe system is the monthly S1 that has held around $0.2800 – but if that breaks, a whopping 40% drop down opens up where XRP could tank to $0.1737.
At the beginning of the month of July, XRP price showed unsustainability as June was a highly volatile news-correlated market. The technicals suggest the hype is over as the bears have confidently breached through the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels (surrounding June’s monthly low at $0.28 and a monthly high of $0.38). XRP price looks to aim for the $0.28 swing lows in the short term. Invalidation of the bearish downtrend is a breach above $0.39. The next attempt at this $0.39 barrier could trigger a bull rally towards $0.51, resulting in a 63% increase from the current XRP price.
Cardano price showed an unresolved battle between the bulls and bears in the market. While several cryptocurrencies rallied upwards of up to 90% in a week, the ADA price only conquered 12% of the losses suffered since the June 18 market sell-off. The power struggle came at an interesting time for the self-proclaimed Ethereum Killer token, as the Cardano community has just released Node 1.35 this week, a technological milestone meant to improve the utility for ADA users and developers.
At the start of the week, Cardano price traded at $0.48, just above the 8-Day Simple Moving Average at $0.48 and the 21-day Simple Moving Average at $0.51. The coiling-like nature between the two moving averages is common amongst price action traders, usually resolving with one moving average crossing over the other and creating an influx of volatility in the process. If the technicals are genuine, the 8-Day MA crossing over the 21-Day MA could induce a 40% bullish rally targeting the May 31 swing high vicinity at $0.685.
At the end of the month of June, Cardano’s ADA price showed the continuation of the bearish trend was likely underway. Since June 25, what first appeared to be a simple consolidation within two coiling simple moving averages, quickly turned into a bearish blitzkrieg as traders came out to suppress the Cardano price. The ongoing downtrend could become increasingly powerful as the bears aim to besiege the liquidity levels under the June 18 swing low at $0.42. A breach of this low could be devastating for bulls in the market as the Cardano price could plummet an additional 50% into the $0.20 price level.
Cardano price traded at $0.44. The self-proclaimed Ethereum killer does not show a bullish reversal signal as of yet. The consecutive free-fall candlesticks on the four-hour chart indicate the bear's strength and confidence in the market. Their satisfaction will only be met by large liquidations, presumably under critical swing lows at $0.42 and the May 12 swing low at $0.39.
At the start of the new month, Cardano price revealed a glimpse of what is coming up in the days and weeks of the first month of summer. A bearish triangle formed on the chart adding additional bearish pressure to the already battered ADA price action. A drop to the downside and a test of $0.388 looks almost inevitable as the bearish death cross and current market sentiment point to a negative outlook.
ADA price only has $0.365 the monthly S1 support level from June to July to back any sharp drops. With no actual historical tests to go forth in, it does look like a feeble supportive level to consider. As thus the safety net looks quite fragile to try and catch the massive bearish snowball that is coming, a complete implosion of ADA price could be in the making and ultimately could result in an 80% loss with price action trading against pennies.
Solana price showed early signs of a bearish downtrend underway. Solana price showed exhaustion as the bulls have lost the battle for the $40 barrier. Since June 13, when laws were established at $25.86, the centralized smart contract token has managed to rally 65%. Now the unfolding selloff could become cataclysmic as the bears have breached the 8-day simple moving average (SMA), forcing early bulls to jump ship. The Relative Strength Index confounds a sneakily bearish move underway as the selloff occurred directly at the sellers’ 65 level.
Solana price prompts investors to keep their eyes on the centralized smart contract token as the SOL price has been notorious for displaying mixed signals prior to pivotal turns in the market. Solana price could be attempting to fool traders once again. On June 30, 2022, the centralized Ethereum killer printed a questionable monthly candlestick. The bearish engulfing candle shows subtle signs of bullish influence as the SOL price settled at $33.76, 30% above the low marked $25.86, yet 27% below June’s high at $46.12. The candlestick also presents an extreme influx in transactions on the Volume Profile indicator. This anomaly provokes the idea that something significant will occur for the Solana price in the coming months.
Solana price tricked bullish traders once before in September of 2021. A bullish candlestick was printed with large amounts of volume. However, the settling price at $141 was marked 34% below the monthly high at $216 and only 30% above the monthly low at $105.89. Four months later, in January 2022, after minimal gains and a stalemate price action, the Solana price finally saw the repercussions of the anomalous monthly candlestick. The bears flexed a 60% liquidation into $80, wiping out all of the profits since September 2021.
As far as the Solana price is concerned, traders should not get overly confident. We are still in a bear market across the board unless Bitcoin can breach $23,500. However, things can change rapidly, so it is best to keep an eye on the anomalous cues that some of the more popular digital tokens may present in the coming weeks.
Invalidation for the bearish downtrend on Solana price is a breach above $45. If the bulls can hurdle this boundary, they could induce a rally towards $90, resulting in a 150% increase from the current Solana price. On the contrary, if the bulls do not show up to support the $35 barrier soon, the SOL price could continue falling to $20, resulting in an additional 40% loss.
Tether was on a decline in the just concluded week. The price of Tether fell by 0.06% in the last 7 days. The current price is $0.998795 per USDT. Tether is 18.13% below the all-time high of $1.22.
The price of BNB experienced a bearish run by 6.87% last week. The price increased by 2.16% in the last 24 hours of the week and also grew by 0.74% on the first day of the new week, July 4, 2022. The current price is $222.527132 per BNB which is 67.79% below the all-time high of $690.93.
There has been a drop of 12.83% in Dogecoin's price over the last 7 days. There has been an increase of 1.44% in price in the past 24 hours. During the past hour, the price has fallen by 0.06%. There is a current price of $0.066675 per DOGE. With a price of $0.74, Dogecoin has fallen 90.99% from its all-time high.
Within the last week, Polkadot's price has fallen by 14.93%. There has been an increase of 2.50% in price in the last 24 hours. Just within the last hour, the price rose by 1.08%. There is a current price of $6.898 per DOT. Currently, Polkadot is 87.46% below its all-time high of $55.00.