Cromwell FX
Dollar Rebounds as NFP Trade Talks Reassure
Markets welcomed a rare dose of optimism last week, as a solid US jobs report and tentative US-China trade thaw helped calm nerves.
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Markets Stuck in Limbo as Trade Tensions Return June Risk Builds
Markets endured another week of indecision, with sentiment whipsawed by conflicting headlines and deepening trade uncertainty.
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Tariff Truce Fractures Midway as Trump Targets EU; Dollar Slides, Safe Havens Surge
Markets were jolted last week as the calm created by the 90-day global tariff truce was abruptly shaken. President Trump’s surprise threat of a 50% tariff on EU imports reignited trade war fears just as investors were adjusting to Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt.
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Moody’s Downgrade Disrupts Calm from Tariff Truce & Dollar Faces New Test
Markets had good reason to celebrate early last week after President Trump announced a 90-day postponement of tariffs on China, giving risk assets a boost and fuelling optimism that trade normalization could gain traction.
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Sterling and Dollar Climb on US-UK Trade Deal Surprise
Markets were driven last week by developments on both sides of the Atlantic, with a surprise US-UK trade agreement grabbing the spotlight.
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Risk Appetite Firms as Jobs Data Lifts Confidence and Dollar Extends Bounce
Global risk sentiment strengthened last week, with major equity indices notching impressive gains.
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Markets Cheer Trade Progress, But Dollar Still Lagging
Global risk sentiment improved further last week, with equity markets extending their rally and investors cautiously embracing hopes of de-escalation in trade tensions.
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Easter Calm Masks Underlying Market Fragility
With Easter shortening the trading week, markets experienced a relatively subdued period, marked by mixed moves and ongoing consolidation. However, under the surface, risks remain elevated as Trump-led trade headlines continue to loom large over sentiment.
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Tariff Whiplash Leaves Dollar Reeling
Last week was nothing short of chaotic as global markets absorbed a relentless barrage of tariff news, reversals, and retaliations. The White House’s shifting stance on trade policy left investors bewildered, with even administration insiders seemingly struggling to keep up.
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Trade War Shockwaves Rock Global Markets
Last week was a turning point. After months of buildup, President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs finally landed, and the scale and scope caught markets off guard.
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Liberation Day Looms
Last week began with relative calm but ended with risk aversion accelerating sharply, as investors shifted into defensive mode ahead of the long-anticipated April 2 “Liberation Day” – the date the US is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs.
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Global Pause Before the Next Push
Last week felt like a deep breath across global markets, as the dominant trends that shaped Q1 seemed to take a break. With key drivers such as Fed policy and tariff threats entering a period of wait-and-see, currency markets slipped into consolidation mode, mirroring the broader indecisiveness seen across asset classes.
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New Week of Consolidation
Last week was all about consolidation in the currency markets as traders took stock of recent moves and began repositioning ahead of the key tariff escalations in April.
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Euro Where Have You Been!
Last week marked a sharp divergence in global market sentiment, with Europe showcasing newfound unity and strategic direction while the US grappled with uncertainty over trade policy.
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Tariffs Continue To Dominate
Last week saw the US Dollar struggle for direction, initially weaker but stabilizing as risk sentiment soured late in the week. Concerns over inflationary pressures from tariffs and a sharp drop in US consumer confidence led to renewed risk aversion, helping the Dollar find support into the weekend.
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Tariffs Begin to Take Their Toll
Last the US Dollar suffered large volatility as a confusing set of trade policies from the Whitehouse sent the markets into large daily swings. Fridays NFP data lifted the dollar to end the week just 0.4% lower.
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Dollar Takes Back Top Spot
Last week with little surprise from central bank announcements the US Dollar retook pole position as President Trump continued to make tariff announcements on Canada and Mexico.
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Dollar Loses Ground
Last week as Donald Trump took office the US Dollar ended the week the worst performer. This was mostly due to further risk on and an expectation of more aggresive tariffs from the new administration.
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A Quieter Week after Trump’s Inauguration
Last week we saw the Dollar move slightly lower as the markets look beyond the inauguration of Donald Trump on Monday.
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Happy New Year and Welcome to 2025
After a couple of weeks break over the festive period welcome back and Happy New Year. The last couple of weeks have seen a continuation of the theme as the US Dollar continues to strengthen vs other economies poor data releases. The dominant US theme is of course the incoming US administration and what impact the talked about tariffs may have.
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