Inflation Continues to Quell Fed Cuts

Last week we saw the US inflation report come in higher than expected. YoY dropped to 3.1% but it fell less than markets expected. The led the DXY Index to new 3-month highs and push lower yielding currencies like Yen to new lows.
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Quiet week with volatility on the horizon

Last week was a quiet one as lack of further data coupled with the expectations of early rate cuts from the Fed diminishing. The Fed is currently holding rates with a March cut priced at 20% compared to 65% at the beginning of 2024.
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Fed to cut or not to cut

Last week the US Dollar claimed the title of strongest currency of the week as the markets priced in rate cut rationale began to dissipate. This was also coupled with a strong risk on week as equities continued their stella run.
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Fed Cuts Priced in Now

Last week the US Dollar gained slightly as we saw stiff resistance being met but the overall trend remains in place. Economic data was mixed including a stronger GDP number but softer CPE. The DXY gained a marginal 0.2% during the week.
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Reversal of Yields

Last week we saw a reversal of the previous week in Yields. Equities continue to remain strong as S&P reached new all-time highs, but bonds sold off.
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Yields Continue to Slip

So, with the first full week of 2024 we saw a similar theme. Yields continued to slide, and equities were strong. US Data continued to beat expectations but overall, the week for FX ended reasonably unchanged…
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Happy New Year

So, 2024 has arrived and we hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas break. Last week saw the markets still in semi holiday mode…
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Dollar Regains Strength

Last week we expected US Yields to be the focus but, in the end, it was commodities. With Friday also being US Payrolls the beat that we saw Yields creep, but commodities sold off. The Dollar finally had a positive week. The DXY gained 0.8% to close just below 104 as US economic data came in better than expected.
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Yields Move Lower

Last week continued the theme as Yields broke lower and Bond buying picked up pace. Dollar selling was the currency trade of the week.
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Yields Find Support

Last week was quieter than normal on the economic data side. The main focus remained Yields and the US Dollar. The Dollar was slightly lower on the week with the DXY down…
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Rate Cuts on The Horizon

Last week we had a slew of data from the US. We saw the CPI data print lower than expected which although was only a slight miss the market took a large reaction to. The market is no longer pricing in any further rate rises in the US and cuts are now more expected in 2024.
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Risk Assets Rally Continue

Last week we saw a continued pattern of the previous week. Risk assets pushed higher with yields moving lower. The Dollar reversed some of the previous week losses. The FED hawkish statement supported the greenback and the DXY closed the week 0.7% better just below 106.
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Week of Central Banks

Last week despite the overshadow of the continuing war in Israel the market mood was lifted as Central Banks pushed the pause button and inflation continued to fall.
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Geopolitical Risks Continue to Weigh

Last week we continued to see the familiar patterns of risk aversion. Rising tensions in the middle east weighed heavy on the markets and the fear of further escalation put the markets in a cautious mood.
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Yields Remain in Focus

Last week yields continued to be the center of attention as they broke out and made new higher highs. This continued rise will have a negative effect on risk especially as we move into central bank decision times.
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Israel Conflict Weighs on Risk

Last week we continued to see yields as the main driver for the markets. We had US CPI which was higher than expected but although yields failed to push higher, they still remain at elevated levels. Risk off continued as the sad events in Israel and the Gaza strip brought uncertainty to the markets as fear about escalation increase.
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Yields Continue to Rise

Last week was the first in a new quarter, but a similar pattern emerged. Yields continued to dominate and rise as payrolls had an upside surprise at the end of the week.
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End of Q3

Last week we were lighter on Economic data but as previously highlighted the yield moved higher and risk assets moved lower. The Dollar continued its move higher. It has moved higher for around 10 weeks now and…
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After the Storm

Last week we had a busy week with Central banks. Decisions from the Fed, BoE and SNB kept the markets busy looking at the forward guidance…
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Central Banks Back in Focus

Last week we saw The European Central Bank (ECB) raise rates by 25bps and US CPI numbers. As we saw US inflation continues to remain at elevated levels and higher for the longer has once again been brought back into focus. The USD still maintained its move higher with the DXY gaining around 0.2%.
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