Foreign Exchange

Last week we had BoE interest rate decision which unsurprisingly moved 25bps higher and continued to deliver a mildly hawkish tone. The main theme was the strong dollar which gained against all major currencies.
The post USD Strong All Week & Debt Ceiling Worries Creep In first appeared on trademakers.

Last week we had key interest rate announcements from both the Fed and ECB. Whilst we saw both raise rates by 25bps it would seem the ECB are looking to continue to raise while the Fed may have reached the end of its cycle.
The post Fed to end cycle first appeared on trademakers.

Last week the markets began looking at the real possibility of Stagflation. US GDP disappointed and with key central banks announcements upcoming the DXY index was a little lower at 101.6.
The post Stagflation? first appeared on trademakers.

The latest performance updates for Cromwell FX – a systematic foreign exchange trading program, based on 22 currency pairs, traded on a 24-hour basis.
The post Cromwell FX – April 2023 first appeared on trademakers.

Last week the markets struggled to make any directional moves. Compared to the rest of 2023 so far this was a quiet week. With further weakening in global economic data this could well point towards…
The post Markets Struggle for Direction first appeared on trademakers.

Last week had the US CPI and PPI releases which would give guidance to how the Fed may react in the coming weeks. The CPI showed further inflation slowdown and the PPI also surprised on the lower side.
The post Are We Reaching Pivot? first appeared on trademakers.

Last week was a busy week but with the long Easter break the week ended more subdued. An unexpected oil production cut from OPEC+ which spiked oil price. The week ended with Non -Farm Payrolls which came inline so now the market will be looking towards the Fed and if the tightening cycle has come to an end.
The post Long Weekend Leave Markets Subdued first appeared on trademakers.

Last week was quieter than expected. Initial fears of a full-blown banking crisis seemed to subside with Deutsche bank and US regional bank contagion fears all but gone for now. The US Dollar had a relatively quiet week with month / quarter end flows dominating.
The post Banking Fears Subside first appeared on trademakers.

Last week the Fed was faced with the decision of what to do with rates. Containing pressure on US banks was being offset by inflationary pressures. On the day the Fed raised rates by 25bps giving a soft dovish message alongside it.
The post Fed raises rates, but no longer higher, for longer first appeared on trademakers.

Last week we saw elevated levels of volatility and uncertainty. The week before SVB was failing in the midst of a regional banking crisis. Last week we saw the SNB step into backstop Credit Suisse as the troubled lender grappled with a falling share price and a lack of confidence.
The post Banking Crisis on The Horizon? first appeared on trademakers.

Last week we expected the markets to be all about the data. We had the Fed speaking early in the week which continued the higher for longer theme and the hotly anticipated monthly payrolls were due Friday.
The post SVB Outshines Payrolls first appeared on trademakers.

Last week quieter than expected as February came to an end. The main focus that has emerged has been the Higher for Longer as the markets look to reprice rate expectations and inflation remains stubbornly high. The DXY lost 0.7% as rate expectations for the Fed increased. Any higher for longer will have a drag on the US economy.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Fed Higher for Longer Still in Focus first appeared on trademakers.

Last week saw another week of strong data from the US. This led the market to disregard any level of terminal rates as markets look to be set for higher and longer than expected. Inflation remains strong with the risk off theme continuing. The USD showed strength with the DXZY closing +1.3% on the week.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Fed Moves to Higher and Longer first appeared on trademakers.

Last week the US CPI was released. The surprise was to the upside with the YoY did drop for the seventh month, but January’s decline was just 0.1% to 6.4%. This was higher than the market expectation and yields push higher on the back of the release.
The post Cromwell FX Market View CPI Surprise first appeared on trademakers.

Last week the markets took a breath after the FOMC / NFP week previously. The market is taking time to figure out if this is truly the peak of Fed rate rises or if there could be more to come.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Week of consolidation ahead of key CPI first appeared on trademakers.

Last week saw the first anticipated rate hike from the fed. A 25bps rise and a failure to maintain the hawkish stance led the market to believe we are reaching our long-anticipated pause point.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Roller Coaster Week with Central Banks and Payrolls first appeared on trademakers.

Quiet Week as Market Awaits Fed. Last week was the first quiet week of the year. The markets gained vs the US Dollar as we could be heading towards the crucial pivot point in Fed Rate rises.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Quiet Week as Market Awaits Fed first appeared on trademakers.

Last week saw the anticipated BOJ announcement which disappointed the market. The BOJ decided not to take any action on interest rates which was a surprise. Other than that, the market had a relatively sideways week.
The post Cromwell FX Market View BOJ Disappoints first appeared on trademakers.

Last week saw the CPI number released. the YoY number met expectations however the market viewed the print as further fuel to the Feds fire to pause its tightening of interest rates. The USD fell significantly along with a risk asset rally.
The post Cromwell FX Market View Dollar Slumps After CPI Numbers first appeared on trademakers.