Further Rate Rises on The Horizon

Last week we saw sentiment move more and more towards further rate rises for the Fed with the phrase “Higher for Longer” being touted. The US job market remains hugely resilient with this week’s CPI print being hugely important for forward guidance.
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Week of Consolidation

Last week we had a week of consolidation post recent central bank announcements. Continued hawkish rhetoric from both the Fed and the ECB came out through the week stating the fight against inflation continues but how much more tightening monetary policy can the global economy take?
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Central Bank Action Continues to Dominate

Our previous report had the Fed dominating the week. Last week it was the turn of the BoE and Norges Bank who both surprised by raising base rates 50bps. Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK…
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Hawkish Hold Send Dollar Lower

Last week we were dominated by the Fed which held rates mid-week. However, despite the hold the tone was a hawkish hold with a further 2 rate rises expected with fed funds looking to peak around 5.6% vs the original expectation of 5.1%.
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USD Debt Ceiling Agreement Done

Last week we saw the predictable debt ceiling agreement. This was then duly passed in the house and senate. With the week ending with good employment payrolls markets took a further leg higher.
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USD Debt Ceiling Agreement Close

Last week was dominated by the continued talk over the debt ceiling and how to break the current impasse. However, Friday we began to see signs that an agreement was close and the market moved to add risk.
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USD Strong All Week & Debt Ceiling Worries Creep In

Last week we had BoE interest rate decision which unsurprisingly moved 25bps higher and continued to deliver a mildly hawkish tone. The main theme was the strong dollar which gained against all major currencies.
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Fed to end cycle

Last week we had key interest rate announcements from both the Fed and ECB. Whilst we saw both raise rates by 25bps it would seem the ECB are looking to continue to raise while the Fed may have reached the end of its cycle.
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Stagflation?

Last week the markets began looking at the real possibility of Stagflation. US GDP disappointed and with key central banks announcements upcoming the DXY index was a little lower at 101.6.
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Cromwell FX – April 2023

The latest performance updates for Cromwell FX – a systematic foreign exchange trading program, based on 22 currency pairs, traded on a 24-hour basis.
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Markets Struggle for Direction

Last week the markets struggled to make any directional moves. Compared to the rest of 2023 so far this was a quiet week. With further weakening in global economic data this could well point towards…
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Are We Reaching Pivot?

Last week had the US CPI and PPI releases which would give guidance to how the Fed may react in the coming weeks. The CPI showed further inflation slowdown and the PPI also surprised on the lower side.
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Long Weekend Leave Markets Subdued

Last week was a busy week but with the long Easter break the week ended more subdued. An unexpected oil production cut from OPEC+ which spiked oil price. The week ended with Non -Farm Payrolls which came inline so now the market will be looking towards the Fed and if the tightening cycle has come to an end.
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Banking Fears Subside

Last week was quieter than expected. Initial fears of a full-blown banking crisis seemed to subside with Deutsche bank and US regional bank contagion fears all but gone for now. The US Dollar had a relatively quiet week with month / quarter end flows dominating.
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Fed raises rates, but no longer higher, for longer

Last week the Fed was faced with the decision of what to do with rates. Containing pressure on US banks was being offset by inflationary pressures. On the day the Fed raised rates by 25bps giving a soft dovish message alongside it.
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Banking Crisis on The Horizon?

Last week we saw elevated levels of volatility and uncertainty. The week before SVB was failing in the midst of a regional banking crisis. Last week we saw the SNB step into backstop Credit Suisse as the troubled lender grappled with a falling share price and a lack of confidence.
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