Posts by Mike Rasmussen

The currency markets have been simultaneously driven by two themes as of recent, however independently the duration of these market motives vary significantly. Firstly, there are the concerns of inflation which have been felt globally since the middle of last year, and more recently accelerating in tandem with higher energy costs. It appears though that…

Geo-political tensions drove the markets this past week with the US sending bold statements of a pending war in Europe. Whether or not the likelihood of an all-out invasion of the Ukraine by Russia materialises, the impact this had on the financial markets was swift. When Russia invaded Georgia nearly fifteen years ago or annexed…

During the first month of the year, the currency markets fed on optimism from lower global unemployment data that support a consensus for economic growth. This positive sentiment encouraged a number of breakout patterns in several of the major crosses. The Dollar rallied to five year highs against the Yen, whilst breaking out of an…

The market optimism that was prevalent during the first of the year faded during the subsequent daily trading sessions. Sentiment appears to sit on both sides of the fence with optimism and uncertainty oscillating with the release on new data. From one view point, investors are anxious that central banks are behind the curve in…

The New Year started with Dollar gains as market optimism pushed the greenback higher against the most global currencies. Equity markets rallied as investors looked to build upon their long positions. The pandemic and spread of the Omicron variant appeared to be centred in Europe. As a result, this limited the downside risk of Dollar…

The financial markets slid lower last week as the Dollar picked up the slack and pushed higher. As per normal, the greenback is the ‘go-to’ currency when markets absorb bad news. In this situation, it was once again COVID that was the major contributor towards declining markets. However, concerns were not only limited to Europe…

The momentum behind the Euro rally last week ran out of steam, as COVID infection numbers surge on the continent. Europe’s central and eastern currencies were also weighed down with little sign of a reprieve. As Europe looks to become the new epicentre for the next wave of the pandemic, markets are responding to the…

Inflation data reported on the high side in the US with the release of the October CPI numbers, extending the Dollar’s rally over the weekend. The impact this had on other financial markets saw elevated volatility levels in bond markets, as well as unsettled trading patterns for US equities. Across the Atlantic, European equity markets…

The Dollar held a firmer stance at the end of last week, as major central banks pushed against the markets discounting future tightening. First up in this regard was the Bank of England decision to hold rates, despite the market expecting a hike. Then there was the dovish tapering announcement from the FED, which initiated…

Global yields have firmed this week with a majority of the currency majors paring gains against the Dollar. As opposed to the pattern that developed in the week earlier, the currencies from higher yielding currencies lost ground against the greenback. Most notably, it was the Norwegian and New Zealand currency that underperformed the most against…

As we approach the tail-end of the first month in the last quarter of the year, one key macro view on the week ahead is the preliminary estimates of US Q3 GDP data. The market will look to assess how resilient the US economy is, and how it is hold up against a backdrop of…

US equities traded higher last week as they rallied on strong earnings reports, which in turn helped global stocks to achieve multi-session gains. As a result the Dollar softens its stance against the majors with the exception to the Yen, despite benchmark yield offerings slight gains. In other markets Gold was unable to sustain any…

The news of last week was how the Dollar would respond to the NFP data being released on Friday. Estimates were pointing towards continued US economic growth, however the market uncertainty resulted in mixed Dollar views ahead of the jobs report. The Scandies lead the way forward for the majors, posting gains against the greenback…

During the past month the Dollar has been trending higher against the majors, on the back growing investor sentiment towards FOMC rhetoric supporting a rate hike later this year. The Fed will not be the first central bank of a high income country to raise rates, as Norway lead the way last month. Second place…

From the beginning of last week, the global markets were depleted of any sustainable risk appetite as the news from the collapse of China’s Evergrande was absorbed. This lifted the Dollar as investors sought safe-haven assets to protect investment portfolios against further downside pressure. As a consequence, the initial Dollar sell-off following the FOMC meeting…

Central Bank Meetings are the order of the week A slew of central bank meetings in the week ahead will keep the markets engaged in monitoring the currency majors. Specific attention on Dollar strengthening as the market looks for potential trending patterns to emerge. All in all, there will be a release of policy data…

Market looking to Trade the ‘Corona’ Delta The Dollar could not hold onto the gains made earlier in the week, as it paired losses against most currency majors as well as emerging market currencies. The catalyst behind the sliding Dollar most likely stemmed from two sources. Firstly, the geo-political environment heated up following the inconclusive…

Dollar heads higher on growing US jobs data The Dollar ascended against the currency majors last week, snapping its decline in the beginning of August. Higher than expected jobs growth data was the stimulus that supported the greenback’s upwards trajectory. As a result, US 10-year yields reversed its five week decline, contributing toward the Dollar…

Only equity markets trade higher as risk appetite falls As the Delta variant of the corona virus subdued several major economies around the globe, the Dollar strengthened last week. In countries such as Japan and Australia as well as parts of the Eurozone, economic activities had fallen due to the implementation of some quarantine restrictions.…

Dollar rally’s on inflation and retail sales data The Dollar rally’s against all major currencies last week apart for the Yen, to break the resistance it faced earlier in the month. A contributing factor towards the slight rally in Yen is put down to the BOJ tweaking its macro forecasts during Friday’s meeting. In effect,…