FX Market View #25

Dollar Gains on Market Uncertainty as Risk Abates

From the beginning of last week, the global markets were depleted of any sustainable risk appetite as the news from the collapse of China’s Evergrande was absorbed. This lifted the Dollar as investors sought safe-haven assets to protect investment portfolios against further downside pressure. As a consequence, the initial Dollar sell-off following the FOMC meeting…

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FX Market View #24

Central Bank Meetings are the order of the week A slew of central bank meetings in the week ahead will keep the markets engaged in monitoring the currency majors. Specific attention on Dollar strengthening as the market looks for potential trending patterns to emerge. All in all, there will be a release of policy data…

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FX Market View #23

Market looking to Trade the ‘Corona’ Delta The Dollar could not hold onto the gains made earlier in the week, as it paired losses against most currency majors as well as emerging market currencies. The catalyst behind the sliding Dollar most likely stemmed from two sources. Firstly, the geo-political environment heated up following the inconclusive…

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FX Market View #22

Dollar heads higher on growing US jobs data The Dollar ascended against the currency majors last week, snapping its decline in the beginning of August. Higher than expected jobs growth data was the stimulus that supported the greenback’s upwards trajectory. As a result, US 10-year yields reversed its five week decline, contributing toward the Dollar…

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FX Market View #21

Only equity markets trade higher as risk appetite falls As the Delta variant of the corona virus subdued several major economies around the globe, the Dollar strengthened last week. In countries such as Japan and Australia as well as parts of the Eurozone, economic activities had fallen due to the implementation of some quarantine restrictions.…

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FX Market View #20

Dollar rally’s on inflation and retail sales data The Dollar rally’s against all major currencies last week apart for the Yen, to break the resistance it faced earlier in the month. A contributing factor towards the slight rally in Yen is put down to the BOJ tweaking its macro forecasts during Friday’s meeting. In effect,…

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FX Market View #19

Dollar resists short term sell-off and trades higher In the past week the Dollar faced resistance to its near-term trend of strengthening against the currency majors. Despite the fact that the jobs report released in the beginning of the month showed robust numbers, the greenback initially declined following a bout of profit-taking. However, the short-selling…

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FX Market View #18

Is this the time to buy into the Dollar dip? Following a hawkish view from the FED, the markets have priced in at least one rate hike before the end of next year. This contributed towards a Dollar recovery in the past 7 days; however the technical picture appears stretched. The Dollar near-term trend starting…

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FX Market View #17

Dollar experiences technical weakening gainst the majors During the past week the Dollar was pushed back as it failed to consolidate weeks of gains against the currency majors. From a technical stance this scenario is not totally unexpected. If you include a more hawkish tone from the FED with economic data revealing an increase in…

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FX Market View #16

Hawkish FED projections send the Dollar higher The US Dollar rallied following statements from the FED that were more hawkish than previously expected. Lifted higher by the a rise in US interest rates, the Dollar rally was coincided with a sell-off in equities and continued throughout the capital markets. Coming into the weekend the markets…

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FX Market View #15

Dollar holds onto current levels despite the drop in US yields The US 10-year yield has continued its pattern of trending lower during the past 3 months, and the fall during last week’s trading session was the largest in the past year. This decline has now made it to a consecutive 4 week period of…

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FX Market View #14

A Healthy US Jobs Market is unable to lift the Dollar The US jobs report in May released numbers of a somewhat healthy half a million new employment contracts, however this disappointed against the much higher expected figure. The let down in May came shortly after the revised April numbers heavily under achieved the 1…

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FX Market View #13

Dollar range narrows with Month-end corrections As we approach month-end, investor interest in the Dollar accumulated resulting in the greenback shoring up against the majors. It is not clear however if this Dollar strengthening can be seen as a shift in the near-term trend or simply a balancing of investor portfolios. Any sustainable shift towards…

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FX Market View #12

Dollar is unlikely to consolidation higher in near term The FED is continuing its path of buying US treasuries even as the economy is expanding, and the vaccine rollout is helping to open businesses. Last month’s disappointing jobs numbers diminishes any likelihood of a change in this fiscal policy. Furthermore, any pricing pressures that may…

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FX Market View #11

Sustained US rates growth required for Dollar recovery The release of the Consumer Price and Producer Price data indices pushed the Dollar around last week. Initially the Dollar was pushed higher on Wednesday as rates jumped following the higher than expected CPI data being reported. As the week came to a close the Dollar then…

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FX Market View #10

Dollar driven lower by disappointing NFP data The relationship between the US economy and the Dollar remains disjointed since the impact of the corona virus on domestic growth. The fiscal and monetary policies which have been implemented during the past year had clearly had a positive effect on the economy. Jobs growth and industrial production…

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FX Market View #9

A turning point for the Dollar heading into May By the completion of the first full month in the second quarter, the Dollar index effectively unwound the March gains. This appeared to be the new pattern for the Dollar during April as the Dollar failed to capitalise on the expanding US economy. There have been…

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