Cromwell FX Market View

The Fed Continues to Rule

The week that was so anticipated finally arrived. The Fed raised interest rates by 50bps ruling out the possibility of 75bps. However by the end of the week, fed fund futures are still pricing in 82.9% chance of a 75bps hike in at the June 15 FOMC meeting, to 1.50-75% Most pairs found some level…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Big Gains for the US Dollar

The US Dollar was the overall winner last week making impressive gains across the board. A further firming of yields and speculation of further Fed tightening propelled the USD.  The market is now expecting a 50bps rate hike in May and could end the year between 2.5% and 3.5% depending on incoming data and developments…

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Cromwell FX Market View

US Dollar Grinds Higher

Last weeks rising yields continued. This led to a week of further downward pressure in bonds and interest rate rises. The Box and RBNZ both moved 50bps higher which caused risk assets to move lower.   The shortened week for the 4 day easter holiday saw the US Dollar grind higher. The flight from risk…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Sleepy Start, Explosive End

The week started as the following had ended. Markets were relatively quiet. The war in Ukraine had continued to ebb away from headlines and the markets were able to begin to focus on other factors.   The US Dollar ended the week the strongest despite the mixed start. The markets waited until the Fed minutes…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Quieter Week – But Eye of The Storm?

The week was quieter on many fronts. The continued war in Ukraine has now seems to have completely stalled for the Russians. The announcement of a more focused approach on the Donbas region seemed to indicate that a move for total control over the control had failed. Continued talks did not prove to garner any…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Rising Yields a Cause for Concern

The war in Ukraine seemed to move from the spotlight as any developments continued to stall the main themes for the week was the continuing rising yields.   The Yen was the biggest loser as global yields surged except the JGB. The BoJ has clearly put a cap on 10-year yields and the resulting widening…

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Cromwell FX Market View

War Stalls and Fed Hikes

The week saw the current war in Ukraine stall. With this we saw the Euro gain slight momentum   GBP gained as the BoE again raised rates by 25bps. However this was not enough for the currency to gain any real upside momentum. The market had eyed a potential 50bps rise and with less than…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Markets Remain Stable Ahead of Fed

The week saw some level of stabilisation after the previous 2 weeks of roller coaster markets. Ukraine continued to dominate the headlines but with no further escalation the markets sought to remain calmer than previous weeks.   The USD which had seen safe haven status over the last 2 weeks gave up some ground to…

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Cromwell FX Market View

War Continues to Take Its Toll

The week was once again dominated by the continued invasion in Ukraine. Euro was the worse performer of the week as the attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station brought the real issues of the conflict into focus.   The war in Ukraine has generated two clear effects in FX markets: The European currencies most…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Putin’s War Begins

The week was dominated by the build up of forces and eventual invasion of Ukraine. Though not unexpected by the markets the actual event still took them by surprise.   Risk assets initially tumbled on Thursday as reports of the invasion broke but by late on Thursday staged a complete comeback and had turned positive…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Ukraine / Russia Continues to Dominate

The ongoing military build-up in eastern Europe continued to dominate the market headlines. In the early stages of the week there was general optimism about the situation, with risk rallying on hopes of the situation getting diffused. However, in the latter part of the week the fear of escalation returned, and risk assets got sold.…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Ukraine in Focus

It seems not a week goes by without some level of event driven volatility. Late in the week rumours of Russia /  Ukraine escalation saw Euro move lower. Oil surged to a new 7 year high and Equities lost ground. In the background we still see the Fed tightening rates ahead. Investors were concerned that…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Surprise Hawkish ECB

Another volatile week as Central Bank hawkishness came to the fore. Traders had seen the Fed being Hawkish for sometime but last week was the turn of the BoE and ECB.   The ECB acknowledged inflation is not transitory and their comments moved in a far more hawkish direction. President Christine Lagarde declined to repeat…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Hawkish Fed Turbocharges USD

The greenback continued its rise against all other majors after the Fed left the markets in no doubt that it was going ahead with its tightening plans. Asset purchases will be taken down to zero by next month, and a 25bp hike is fully priced into the March meeting. Furthermore, the market is now pricing…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Dollar Comes Back Strong

All major currencies lost vs the greenback as risk off continued to dominate the week. Tech stocks that started reporting moved the Nasdaq sharply lower with Netflix reporting disappointing numbers. This move lower also moved Cryptocurrencies with it. The week ahead sees Tesla and Apple report.   Euro was weakened by dovish ECB comments even…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Dollar Stalls Despite Fed

With a slightly shortened week the markets started the year risk on as Omicron fears faded however with the Fed giving a more hawkish outlook stock indices suffered a deep pull back. Sterling was the strongest pair vs the USD, CAD made ground as Oil Prices appreciated back towards 80 USD. The hawkish tone was…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Dollar Shines… Eventually

The week saw a slew of central banks reporting surprises. The Fed indicated that next year there will be up to 3 interest rate rises, followed by the Bank of England raising interest rates. Then the ECB reported in less dovish tones than the market expected Eventually it took a late sell off in stocks…

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Cromwell FX Market View

Markets Put Omicron Behind Them. Temporarily?

FX markets were mixed but the general theme of risk on returned as investors temporarily put Omicron fears behind them. Commodity currencies were strongest but moves seemed more corrective. the USD remained range bound vs European majors and Yen. With additional restrictions being introduced in the UK Sterling came under pressure but soon reversed as…

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