Posts by Chris Butler

Last week US inflation data came in higher than expected which moved USD stronger once again. With the Fed looking at the data the market is predicting where the terminal rate will be. The US Dollar would have ended higher but for Friday’s reversal. The DXY ended the week 0.6% higher at 109.64.   Euro…

We extend our sincerest condolences to members of the Royal Family and we join the nation in mourning this immeasurable loss. Last week saw central banks continue their hawkish rate rising. The ECB rose rates by 75bps followed by the RBA and BoC. The market is looking for the inflection point where rates peak and…

Last week the USD continued its role as the markets favourite currency as it posted another positive week. The US economy continues to show strong economic signs with the market continuing to look for further Fed tightening in the coming months.   Euro ended the week flat as despite USD strength the single currency held…

Last week the USD consolidated its dominance as Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium reiterated policy to reduce inflation and cautioned against switching to an accommodative stance too early. Risk assets fell as a result of the more hawkish stance than expected. Euro continued to trade in a lowering range during the week. The…

Last week the US Dollar closed significantly stronger as the previous weeks risk on rally lost its steam and yields rose once again. US Dollar surged as investors adjusted their expectations. With much more data releases before the next FOMC meeting expectations of continued rate rises once again took the fore. Both the GBP and…

Last week the US CPI print gave the market reason to react that the Fed may change tact on rate rises. The last meeting saw the Fed state they would be more data driven and that is exactly what we got. The US Dollar didn’t like the weak CPI number and lost ground all week.…

Last week saw the Bank of England raise rates by 0.5% to 1.75%. This is the biggest rise in 27 years and the highest rates have been since 2008. Strong payrolls later in the week gave the US Dollar a lift after last weeks announcement that the Fed will be looking more at the data…

Last week saw the FED rise interest rates by the expected 75bps. The big surprise was the comments post meeting. The markets had priced in further interest rates through to end of 2022. The comments coming out where that the Fed will be more data driven potentially signalling a slow in rate rises. Euro failed…

Last week saw the US Dollar finally move lower after several strong weeks. With inflation remaining high and mixed economic data markets saw no clear path for accelerated tightening by the Fed in the upcoming meeting.   Euro moved higher and away from parity as the ECB surprised the market with a 50bps rate hike.…

Last week saw the US Dollar squeeze higher. With the Euro briefly breaching parity talk turned to the Fed and a possible 100bps rate rise this month. Investors are still expecting just a 75bps this month which helped later in the week as the Euro rebounded and could lead to short covering. Euro eventually gave…

Last week the US Dollar was strong, helped by improved economic data and a surplice NFP number. The strength persisted all week as the DXY moved 1.7% higher to close at 106.89. Euro was the worst performer as the talk of energy rationing took its toll on the single currency and a move to parity…

Last week saw the relief rally end as sell the rise came back into play. The US Dollar once again re asserted itself on the market pushing against important resistance levels. The Fed still remains much further ahead in its policy and this policy divergence once again brought strength to the US Dollar. Despite its…

Last week the relief rally people had been expecting finally came. As markets looked to digest the moves of the central banks and upcoming 2022 first half ending we saw the US Dollar give back a little. This was accompanied by yields falling and risk assets rising as the fall in commodity and energy prices…

Last week saw the central banks look to tighten further as inflationary pressures continue to loom. The Fed was particularly hawkish raising by 75bps but the week also had the SNB delivering a surprise 50bps while the BoE’s 25bps had an underlying hawkish note with 3 members looking to raise by more. The Euro had…

Last week major markets were rangebound till later in the week. Stagflation fears rose as the usually cautious ECB pre committed to rate rises in July and September and US CPI hit a 40-year high which triggered a sell off across all risk assets, pushing yields higher and the US Dollar stronger. The Euro struggled…

Last week the US dollar reversed the decline seen over the last couple of weeks. Modest gains were made as rising yields and stronger than expected NFP number saw elevated volatility in risk assets   The Euro had a mixed week as more ECB comments became hawkish. With Eurozone inflation running in excess of 8%…

Last week we saw the US Dollar fall once again as short covering fuelled a bounce in risk assets. The Fed is beginning to give a clearer indication as to where it think the Fed funds will be with the risk being that market expectations are disappointed.   The Pound which although gained ground vs…

Last week risk off flows continued a pace as global inflation numbers remained high. The US Dollar finally lost some ground to other currencies as the world waits to see if we are turning into a bear market.   The US Dollar had its first losing week in sometime. US data is still showing some…

Last week saw huge volatility in most markets. Crypto was probably the most wild as some lost their entire value. In the short term we saw some stabilisation towards the end of the week. Yen ended the best performer vs the USD helped by risk aversion and a retracement in treasury yields. The US Dollar…

The week that was so anticipated finally arrived. The Fed raised interest rates by 50bps ruling out the possibility of 75bps. However by the end of the week, fed fund futures are still pricing in 82.9% chance of a 75bps hike in at the June 15 FOMC meeting, to 1.50-75% Most pairs found some level…